Following the failure to elect the country's new president, Kosovo will hold new early elections, which according to the latest ruling of the Constitutional Court, must be held within 45 days.
As a result of this event, several pages calling themselves media were immediately activated on the social media platform Facebook to publish surveys they call "polls" with questions about which political entity you will vote for in the early elections (see here, here and here).
This content, however, does not meet basic standards for measuring public opinion and may contribute to information disorder.
What distinguishes real surveys from social media polls?
Professional surveys are conducted by companies or research institutes and are based on scientific methodology, representative sample selection, control of demographic structure, and transparency over the method of data collection.
In contrast, surveys from various Facebook pages are open to anyone who sees the post, do not use samples, and only reflect that page's audience.
A survey published in 2024 emphasizes that social media polls suffer from "selection bias" and do not represent the general opinion of the population.
The dangers that come from these "surveys"
Based on previous experience, hibrid.info, on the eve of the electoral processes, has identified and addressed hundreds of fake publications from various publishers on social media, which were falsely presented as reliable polls (see some here, here and here).
These surveys are published with wording that makes them appear as "polls", thus creating the impression that they reflect political reality.
Research shows that content presented as facts has a greater impact on shaping public opinion. An analysis by MIT Sloan School of Management explains that incorrect information on social media spreads faster and has a greater impact than accurate information.
Also, a media analysis published by the French media outlet El Pais, emphasizes that social media polls can "deliberately distort political reality," creating false perceptions about support for parties.
What are surveys?
A survey is a preliminary research to know a situation, opinions or attitudes about something specific. In this statistical method Results are drawn based on the study of a portion of the population, called a sample.
Based on the institute's article Pew Research (research institute for surveys and evidence-based studies), it is clarified what information should be requested about how a survey was conducted.
Therefore, the reader who comes across such content, to verify whether it is a credible survey or not, should check:
Who conducted the survey and who sponsored it?
Who was interviewed?
How was the survey conducted?
How were people selected for the survey?
When was the survey conducted?
How many people were interviewed?
Was the survey weighted? If so, how?
Do the survey questions seem neutral and fair?
The immediate appearance of “polls” on Facebook as the country is about to hold snap elections is a practice repeated in past election periods. Although this content may seem harmless at first glance, it creates a distorted picture of political reality and can influence voters’ perceptions.