Wrote: Etrit Rexhepi
An image has been published showing alleged results of a public opinion poll regarding the support that political entities from Kosovo have in the diaspora.
This content was published on Tuesday (December 22) on Facebook by a page called "Shadërvanit” and on Wednesday (December 24) on TikTok by an account named “imp3rial.aura".
What's wrong with the content?
Given that the country is in an election period and based on past practices, such polls have been frequent, which have proven to be untrue.
Given this fact, the Hibrid.info team verified this survey, which also turned out to be untrue.
According to the graph of this alleged poll, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) leads with 33.1 percent. Behind it in the alleged ranking of percentages is the Self-Determination Movement (LVV) with 26.9%, followed by the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) with 25.2%, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) with 8%, Nisma with 2.5% and Others with 4.3%.
As of the time of writing, the Facebook content has received over 950 likes and over 530 comments, while the TikTok content has nearly 15 views and nearly 90 comments. In the comments, it is noted that this content has sparked debate among users who have given their predictions for the results.
What are surveys?
A survey is a preliminary research to know a situation, opinions or attitudes about something specific. In this statistical method Results are drawn based on the study of a portion of the population, called a sample.
Based on the institute's article Pew Research (research institute for surveys and evidence-based studies), it is clarified what information should be requested about how a survey was conducted.
Who conducted the survey and who sponsored it?
Who was interviewed?
How was the survey conducted?
How were people selected for the survey?
When was the survey conducted?
How many people were interviewed?
Was the survey weighted? If so, how?
Do the survey questions seem neutral and fair?
Does this publication meet these criteria?
The content discussed lacks all the necessary information to be considered a reliable survey.
In addition, hibrid.info checked the Google search engine with the words “diaspora vote poll December 28”. The results did not show any credible source of information that has published such a measurement (see here).
Another fact that makes the content suspicious is the possibility that it was generated by artificial intelligence (AI). The results after verification on relevant platforms such as “Hivemoderation.com” and “Wasitai.com” show a high probability that the content in question was generated by AI.
Fake polls as a form of opinion manipulation on social media were also detected during the period before and during the election campaign of the parliamentary elections of February 9 this year. During this period, hibrid.info had verified 36 fake polls. Before the start of the election campaign, hibrid.info had warned readers about the dangers of inaccurate information that could be published during this time, also mentioning fake polls as one of the forms of misinformation content. The pace of publishing fake polls continued for the local elections held on October 12 and November 9. (see here)
President Vjosa Osmani on November 20, he decided to dissolve the Assembly and announced December 28 as the date for early parliamentary elections. The campaign for these elections began on December 17 and ends on December 28 (06:59, here).
Analyze:
A survey has been published that claims to show the support of political entities from Kosovo in the diaspora.
However, based on the treatment by hibrid.info, it appears that it is not reliable, as it lacks information such as the source and methodology of its implementation, which makes it suspicious.
Hibrid.info also found no credible source that would confirm the claimed measurement, and there is a possibility that the image was generated by Artificial Intelligence.
Polls like these have often been published during election campaigns.
Therefore, based on its work methodology, hibrid.info assesses the content as "Fake News".
Reasoning:
The “Fake News” rating is given to informational content that is entirely fabricated or that contains factually incorrect claims or information. Content that is rated as fake news can be defined as having been created and distributed with the intent to misinform the public, i.e., to present a claim that is completely false as fact.