Prepared by: Festim Rizanaj
Monitoring by hybrid.info shows a continuing trend of spreading incorrect information on Albanian social media. TikTok, in particular, has seen a recent increase in misinformation, becoming a worrying source that influences the shaping of opinions through manipulative and unfounded content.
Pre-election polls have become a common practice in Kosovo, but this has created opportunities for widespread manipulation.
According to hibrid.info monitoring, since the announcement of the election date by the President of the Republic, Vjosa Osmani, on August 16, over 20 fake polls published on social media, mainly on TikTok, have been identified.
The topic of election polls has dominated the list of topics about which he was most misinformed over the past few months. September, October, November and December, according to monthly misinformation reports from hibrid.info.
Old polls, conducted for past elections, have been published on TikTok, which have been published with the tendency to appear as current. (here, here, here)
Also, old and manipulated polls have been published, where data from a previous poll was used by changing the order of parties on the list to create false perceptions. (here)
What has dominated are fake, fabricated polls, where an image of a poll is published with the claim that it represents one conducted on a certain date on popular support for political entities in Kosovo, before the parliamentary elections of February 9. However, these publications do not mention any credible source and have not been found published in any reliable reference. Also, in some cases, names of companies are added to these polls, which claim to be credible American research companies. (here, here, here)
Research agency polls for the February 9 elections
As Kosovo's parliamentary elections on February 9, 2025 approach, two polls have been published so far by companies specializing in measuring public opinion. The purpose of these surveys is to measure the current preferences of the electorate, identify political trends, and determine expectations for the election outcome.
One of the most important surveys is published by Valicon, one of the research agencies in the Adria region. In collaboration with its online platform Opinia.Club, Valicon has conducted the pre-election survey for this election process.
Another survey was conducted by UBO Consulting and RTV Dukagjini's "Debat Plus", within the framework of the OMNIBUS project, analyzed the political preferences of the electorate by asking how they would vote if the elections were held on Sunday, December 29. At the request of the show, “Debat Plus,” the survey, which is conducted every three months to measure public opinion on various issues, included the main question, “if the parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, which political entity would you vote for?”
Why are surveys conducted and what is their impact?
Polls are conducted to understand the public's opinions, attitudes, and preferences on various issues, providing important insight for politicians, the media, and decision-makers. According to Scott Keeter, senior polling consultant at the Pew Research Center, polls are an essential tool for measuring public opinion, especially during election campaigns, as they help identify trends and assess voters' expectations. Furthermore, they contribute to informing citizens and to building policies that reflect the needs and interests of the public.
However, Keeter also highlights some of the limitations and potential harms of polls. If not conducted accurately, they can convey inaccurate results, creating false perceptions about political support or social trends. Also, excessive use of polls can influence the manipulation of public opinion, orienting voters towards predicted winners or marginalizing less supported candidates. For this reason, it is important that polls are conducted to high professional standards and their interpretation be careful.