Wrote: Etrit Rexhepi
A Facebook page has published a image through which it claims to display the latest poll for the December 28 parliamentary elections.
According to the claim of "Gazeta Premium", the survey was conducted by a prestigious American company "UGBA".
The image presents the percentages of parties, under the pretense that they represent measurements for the question "if elections were held tomorrow - who would win?"
According to the chart, the Self-Determination Movement (LVV) leads with 33.1 percent. Behind it in the alleged ranking of percentages is the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 26.9%, followed by the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) with 25.2%, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) with 8%, the Initiative with 2.5% and Others with 4.3%.
What is the truth?
- There is no online data confirming that there is an American company with the acronym or name "UGBA" that deals with public opinion measurement.
- Such a survey has not been made public in any credible information source.
- It is not the first time that hibrid.info has addressed similar claims that this organization has conducted a poll for the elections in Kosovo.
Hibrid.info has verified through "Google"If there is such a company with the acronym or name UGBA and if it deals with surveys or public opinion measurements. Such a company has not been encountered."
For more, hibrid.info has also verified in Wikipedia in the list of organizations that deal with surveys. There is no one with the acronym UGBA found there either.
Hibrid.info has also verified on "Google" with the words "Poll for the December 28 elections". The results did not lead to any credible source of information that has published such a measurement.
For a survey conducted by the "prestigious American company UGBA", hibrid.info also covered a publication during the October local elections for the municipality of Prizren. (see here)
As of the time of writing, more than a day later, this content has received more than 780 likes, views and over 400 comments. In the comments, it is noted that this content has sparked debate among users who have given their predictions for the results.
The page that published it has over 6,600 followers (see here).
Content with the same claim was also found and published on TikTok by an account named "transparentmedia1".
What are surveys?
A survey is a preliminary research to know a situation, opinions or attitudes about something specific. In this statistical method Results are drawn based on the study of a portion of the population, called a sample.
Based on the institute's article Pew Research (research institute for surveys and evidence-based studies), it is clarified what information should be requested about how a survey was conducted.
Who conducted the survey and who sponsored it?
Who was interviewed?
How was the survey conducted?
How were people selected for the survey?
When was the survey conducted?
How many people were interviewed?
Was the survey weighted? If so, how?
Do the survey questions seem neutral and fair?
Polls as a social media phenomenon before elections:
Fake polls as a form of opinion manipulation on social media were also detected during the period before and during the election campaign of the parliamentary elections of February 9 this year. During this period, hibrid.info had verified 36 fake polls. Before the start of the election campaign, hibrid.info had warned readers about the dangers of incorrect information that could be published during this time, also mentioning fake polls as one of the forms of misinformation content. The pace of publications of fake polls continued for the local elections held on October 12 and November 9. (see here)
President Vjosa Osmani On November 20, he decided to dissolve the Assembly and announced December 28 as the date for early parliamentary elections.
Analyze:
The TikTok account "transparmentmedia1" has published an image through which it falsely claimed that it is a poll for the parliamentary elections, conducted by the "prestigious American company UGBA".
Hibrid.info has verified that such an acronym does not exist for companies that deal with public opinion measurements and that no measurements for the December 28 elections have been published in any credible source of information.
Fake polls are often circulated before elections to manipulate public opinion.
Based on its work methodology, hibrid.info assesses this claim as "Fake News".
Reasoning:
The “Fake News” rating is given to informational content that is entirely fabricated or that contains factually incorrect claims or information. Content that is rated as fake news can be defined as having been created and distributed with the intent to misinform the public, i.e., to present a claim that is completely false as fact.