Wrote: Fatbardh Dema
From September 13 to October 12, the day of local elections in Kosovo, 28 false claims were identified that they were public opinion surveys in the form of surveys or exit polls. 26 were presented as surveys and two were published on election day with the claim that they were exit polls.
The vast majority of such false content that was addressed during the overwhelming campaign period was published on various social media pages on Facebook (23). Four of them were published on TikTok and one on a news agency.
These surveys have mainly lacked the methodology on which public opinion measurements should be based. There have been cases where data has been written that could make the methodology credible, but in these cases it has been mentioned that the "surveys" were conducted by companies/organizations that, upon verification, turned out not to exist or were not registered.
Based on findings from hibrid.info, it turns out that these claims were made in the mayoral race in 14 different municipalities: Decan, Ferizaj, Gjakova, gjilan, Kaēanik, Lipljan, Mitrovica, Obilic, Peja, Podujevo, Pristina, Prizren, Suva Reka, Screws.
And on election day, there were allegations of fake exit polls for the mayor. Suva Reka and to Lipljan.
Hibrid.info has also verified a claim about "survey for all of Kosovo"on election day."
All of these claims, collectively, have received hundreds of reactions on social media.
What are surveys?
A survey is preliminary research to identify a situation, opinions or attitudes about something specific. In this statistical method Results are drawn based on the study of a portion of the population, called a sample.
Based on the institute's article Pew Research (research institute for fact-based surveys and studies), it is clarified what information should be requested about how a survey was conducted.
Who conducted the survey and who sponsored it?
Who was interviewed?
How was the survey conducted?
How were people selected for the survey?
When was the survey conducted?
How many people were interviewed?
Was the survey weighted? If so, how?
Do the survey questions seem neutral and fair?
The phenomenon of publishing fake polls was also present in the central election campaign at the beginning of the year (see here). Based on the results published by Monday on the website of the Central Election Commission (CEC), more than 15 municipalities will go to the second round of elections. This means that in the following period there will be a campaign and the possibility of continuing the trend of misinformation with polls.