Written by: Fatbardh Dema
Three pieces of content purporting to present election polls ahead of the December 28 elections for the Kosovo Assembly were published on the account named “albinicilin" on TikTok.
Launched on November 24, the three publications have received around 20 thousand views on this social media.
What are the claims?
- On November 24, this account published the first graph, which the polls of that date claimed. According to the chart, the Vetëvendosje Movement (LVV) was leading with 50 percent, while the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) had 21 percent and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) 18 percent.
- On December 3, the same account published the next chart, which allegedly presented the latest poll, that of December 3, without the inclusion of the diaspora. In the graph, LVV reached 51.2%, followed by PDK with 19.8%, LDK with 16.7%. The graph now also contained the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) with 5.02% and the Social Democratic Initiative with 3.1%. The same content was published on December 6, combining it with a video in which Vetëvendosje's candidate for prime minister, Albin Kurti, appears from the February election campaign.
The truth?
Hibrid.info has verified both claims and according to the results, they turned out to be false.
Hibrid.info has verified on "Google" with the words "Poll for the December 28 elections","LVV 50%, PDK 21%, LDK 18%”And“LVV 51.2%, PDK 19.8%, LDK 16.7%, AAK 5.02%, Nisma 3.1%". None of these three studies resulted in being published in any media or other credible source.
Hibrid.info has also verified through photos. The first graphic was also found published on the account "King Agron” on Facebook, also on November 24.
While the second graph it didn't work out in no other publication.
What are surveys?
A survey is a preliminary research to know a situation, opinions or attitudes about something specific. In this statistical method Results are drawn based on the study of a portion of the population, called a sample.
Based on the institute's article Pew Research (research institute for surveys and evidence-based studies), it is clarified what information should be requested about how a survey was conducted.
Who conducted the survey and who sponsored it?
Who was interviewed?
How was the survey conducted?
How were people selected for the survey?
When was the survey conducted?
How many people were interviewed?
Was the survey weighted? If so, how?
Do the survey questions seem neutral and fair?
The posts from this account, whose content is being addressed, do not contain any of this information. Although they do not contain any of this information, the content has sparked debate based on comments. There are over 150 comments on the three posts, while the content has also received over 1000 likes.
Polls as a social media phenomenon before elections:
Fake polls as a form of opinion manipulation on social media were also detected during the period before and during the election campaign of the parliamentary elections of February 9 this year. During this period, hibrid.info had verified 36 fake polls. Before the start of the election campaign, hibrid.info had warned readers about the dangers of incorrect information that could be published during this time, also mentioning fake polls as one of the forms of misinformation content. The pace of publications of fake polls continued for the local elections held on October 12 and November 9. (see here)
President Vjosa Osmani On November 20, he decided to dissolve the Assembly and announced December 28 as the date for early parliamentary elections.
Analyze:
The account named "albinicilini" on TikTok has published three pieces of content that appear to be election polls for the December 28 parliamentary elections.
Hibrid.info's verification has shown that these surveys are completely fake: they are not found in any credible source and all basic survey data is missing.
The posts have received thousands of views and comments, fueling unfounded debate.
Based on its work methodology, hibrid.info assesses this claim as "Fake News".
Reasoning:
The “Fake News” rating is given to informational content that is entirely fabricated or that contains factually incorrect claims or information. Content that is rated as fake news can be defined as having been created and distributed with the intent to misinform the public, i.e., to present a claim that is completely false as fact.