Wrote: Etrit Rexhepi
An image depicting the acronyms of the four largest parliamentary parties in Kosovo with certain percentages has begun circulating on several accounts on social media TikTok, Facebook and Instagram.
The image, which shows the Self-Determination Movement (LVV) with 53 percent, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) with 16%, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 12%, and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) with 4%, was published on several different accounts in one week on TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram.
What's wrong with the publication? The image does not indicate from any credible source that it could be a poll or public opinion measurement or even who conducted it. It also does not meet any criteria to be considered a poll conducted according to proper statistical measurements.
"Kysmet in December"wrote the first publication encountered with this claim from the account"rai123" on TikTok. Based on the published image, it is implied that this could be a measurement of public opinion regarding political parties for the early elections that may be held in December or it is just a prediction of the account that published it. However, the publication has received over 400 comments and over 180 thousand views. Many of the commentators comment on them as possible results or debate them.
Photo with some of the comments
After this account, the image was also republished by the accounts "ekrem.kryeziu2”And“kingbossi1204".
The publication with the same percentages and party names was also published on November 14 by TikTok accounts with the names "diamond”And“Dardanian Falcon". The differences lie in the photos of the party leaders. "The opposition is sinking into itself. The upcoming elections on December 28 in Kosovo LVV is heading towards an absolute majority," the account wrote in the description of the publication.diamond".
The same image was also published on Friday (November 14) on Facebook by the account "Jona Citaku". This account wrote that "this is the clear trend" for the elections it has announced for December 28. The publication has received around 2 thousand reactions and over 400 comments, based on some of which it seems that the image is being considered a real poll.
Full post:
"The upcoming elections on December 28 in Kosovo, this is the clear trend: LVV is heading towards an absolute majority, while the opposition is sinking into itself. Citizens are demanding justice, work and dignity, not the return of corruption and bargaining. LVV – 53% | 🔵 PDK – 16% | ⚪ LDK – 12% | 🟠 AAK – 4% without diaspora votes. This is the reality that is being formed: a Kosovo that is choosing change, not return. LVV has 53%, PDK 16%, LDK 12%, AAK 4% (does not enter). AAK's votes are distributed among the first three, and due to the D'Hondt formula, LVV comes out with about 55–56% of the parliamentary mandates. + LVV gets about 3% of diaspora votes that will not go to 59%, this was supposed to be the final result. Congratulations".
The same article was shared with the same image on Instagram by the account "leotrim_beriishaa".
The image was also published in the Facebook group “#with SELF-DETERMINATION"-n". ""This fate will await political opponents in the upcoming elections on December 28th!" wrote an account with the nickname "in support of Albin".
The facts:
Hibrid.info searched through “Google.com” with the words “Poll for December elections in Kosovo”And“LVV 53%, PDK 16%, LDK 12%, AAK 4%". None of the research has come across any credible source of information that this is a real survey with proper statistical methodology.
Moreover, these accounts have in some cases mentioned December 28 as the date of new elections, but this has not yet been set.
Elections in December?
On October 26, Albin Kurti, leader of the Vetëvendosje Movement, did not secure a sufficient majority in the Assembly to form a Government, as the first mandate holder, as the winner of the February 9 elections.
After this failure, based on Article 95, paragraph 4 of the Constitution of KosovoOn November 4, President Vjosa Osmani mandated Glauk Konjufca to form the Government. Konjufca has 15 days from that date to propose the composition of the Government and the program to the Assembly. According to the Constitution, if the Government is not elected even in the second attempt, then the President announces elections, which must be held no later than forty (40) days from the day of their announcement.
So far, there has been no confirmation as to when the session will be held in which Konjufca will present the team with which he intends to form the Government, and consequently, the date of possible parliamentary elections has not been set.
What are surveys?
A survey is a preliminary research to know a situation, opinions or attitudes about something specific. In this statistical method Results are drawn based on the study of a portion of the population, called a sample.
Based on the institute's article Pew Research (research institute for surveys and evidence-based studies), it is clarified what information should be requested about how a survey was conducted.
Who conducted the survey and who sponsored it?
Who was interviewed?
How was the survey conducted?
How were people selected for the survey?
When was the survey conducted?
How many people were interviewed?
Was the survey weighted? If so, how?
Do the survey questions seem neutral and fair?
Polls in past parliamentary elections:
Fake polls as a form of opinion manipulation on social media were also detected during the period before and during the election campaign of the parliamentary elections of February 9 this year. During this period, hibrid.info had verified 36 fake polls. Before the start of the election campaign, hibrid.info had warned readers about the dangers of incorrect information that could be published during this time, also mentioning fake polls as one of the forms of misinformation content.
Analyze:
The image that presents the four main parliamentary parties in Kosovo with certain percentages and with the caption that it is about December elections, is not a real poll.
The image was posted on several accounts on TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram. Based on the comments on these posts, it appears that the image was considered a legitimate survey.
However, none of these posts indicate the source for the claimed figures nor who may have conducted such opinion polls.
They also mention December 28 as the date of the elections, but this has not yet been set and there are institutional processes that must be carried out to arrive at a date.
Therefore, based on the verifications carried out, hibrid.info assesses these publications as "fake news".
rationale
The “Fake News” rating is given to informational content that is entirely fabricated or that contains factually incorrect claims or information. Content that is rated as fake news can be defined as having been created and distributed with the intent to misinform the public, i.e., to present a claim that is completely false as fact.