Manipulating numbers may seem like a tempting idea. But if you go down that route, without even realizing it, you could get caught quoting numbers from satirical websites.
By Vanja Stokić (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Zoran Strika (Serbia), Teodora Gjurnić (Montenegro), Gentiana Paçarizi (Kosovo) and Jona Plumbi (Albania)
As we have often observed, politicians in the Western Balkans manipulate figures to strengthen their positions and reputations, or to attack opponents. This type of technique dominates political communication during election campaigns, as politicians seek to influence voters as much as possible, but it has become a common method of work throughout their political activity. Figures serve not only to deceive voters, but are also used as a means to present themselves to the public as knowledgeable and competent - a tactic described in the book by Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman Spin Dictators (Cunning dictators).
A tactic perfected over the years, although not unique to our region, is to exaggerate the number of participants in public gatherings, and minimize the opponent's rallies. Likewise, fabricated public opinion polls and surveys are often presented as factual and reliable data. The harmless hyperbolization of every aspect of political life seems to have gained legitimacy whenever we deal with figures and numbers. In this respect, a particularly absurd example is that politician who falsely claims to have planted a million trees.
Across the region, both ruling and opposition parties seem to believe that inflating figures and numbers is of particular importance for electoral success or failure. For example, during a rally in the run-up to the 2024 elections, the mayor of Zenica in Bosnia, Fuad Kasumović, claimed to have paid off 40 million BAM (20.5 million euros) of the city’s debts that had been accumulated by the previous administration. After reviewing data from the ministry of finance and treasury, it was found that only 12 million BAM (6 million euros) of debts had been paid off. At another pre-election rally that same year, in Travnik, a town not far from Zenica, the leader of the opposition SDA party declared that during their party’s mandate with Fadil Novalić as prime minister of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the level of GDP growth was three times higher than during the succeeding government. Fact-checking website Istinomjer showed that this was not true.
Even in Albania, opposition leader Sali Berisha recently claimed that the prime minister's salary was equal to 50 pensions. Fact checked this statement and found that Prime Minister Edi Rama's salary was actually equal to 20 urban pensions or 37 rural pensions.
Numbers in times of crisis
Numbers play a key role in communication strategies in crisis situations, such as after the collapse of the roof of a railway station in Novi Sad, Serbia’s second-largest city, in November last year. That accident killed 15 people, with two still in critical condition at the time of writing. Amid public outrage and demands for accountability, government officials have tried to deflect criticism by pointing to accidents and tragedies in other places—in cities like Miami, Paris, and Jakarta, or natural disasters in Spain—where the death toll was even higher.
Pro-government media echoed this narrative, with Parliament Speaker Ana Brnabić even saying ironically that “the opposition’s problem seems to be that not enough people died in Novi Sad.” After the arrests related to the station’s reconstruction, which lasted for about three years, Brnabić again tried to downplay the problem, citing the slow pace of investigations after the collapse of a building in Marseille in 2018.
The tactic of comparing numbers to downplay domestic tragedies is nothing new. In 2018, two workers died at a construction site in Belgrade, and President Aleksandar Vučić tried to downplay the incident, saying, “That’s life.” He then surprisingly claimed that a window washer dies every 10 seconds in the United States. This statement was not only false, but it was taken from The Onion, a satirical website. (After being mocked by the media, Vučić apologized for the mistake.)
Numbers at rallies
In 2019, the “One in Five Million” protests took place across Serbia, including in Novi Sad. A local pro-government media outlet, NS Uživo, claimed that only 350 people had turned out to protest. However, fact-checking website FakeNews Tracker rejected this claim, proving that the media had manipulated the footage to show a smaller crowd, while the real attendance was around 3,000 people.
Similar tactics have been used during other demonstrations. After two mass shootings in May 2023, a wave of protests erupted across Serbia as citizens blamed government policies for failing to reduce violence. Tens of thousands of citizens participated in the “Serbia Against Violence” protests, but pro-government media outlets used drone footage taken before the march or at the beginning of the protests – when attendees were still gathering together – to downplay the turnout.
On the other hand, pro-government media outlets inflated the numbers when it was in their favor. For example, these outlets claimed that 200,000 people attended the “Serbia of Hope” rally organized by President Vučić in response to the May tragedies. However, according to independent estimates, the number of attendees was no more than 50,000.
Irritated by these discrepancies, a group of media activists created the Facebook group "Protest Fan Club", which later evolved into Public Rallies Archive, which aims to present a realistic picture of public activities. Aleksandar Gubash, one of the organizers of the Archive, explains that the government often increases the number of participants in its rallies, and minimizes opposition gatherings.
“This trend of increasing turnout is not unique to the government,” Gubash points out. “It is also common for opposition parties, civic movements, religious organizations, sports clubs, and event organizers around the world. The public is very attracted to spectacle and we are pleased when we hear that large crowds have gathered. That is why we often hear claims that hundreds of thousands of people have gathered on the streets of Tel Aviv, Prague, or other cities. But in reality, only a very small percentage of the population participates in political protests, even in cities like Belgrade.”
Gubash explains that they try to count the participants in the rallies whenever possible, using all available footage and being as patient as possible. When an exact count is impossible, they try to arrive at an approximate figure.
“After analyzing hundreds of protests, we have come to understand that the crowd density at outdoor gatherings never exceeds two people per square meter and is often around 1.5 per square meter. Using this knowledge, in parallel with calculating the area of activity, we can accurately determine the participation in large, stationary gatherings,” adds Gubash.
In Bosnia too, politicians have been exaggerating the turnout at their own rallies for years, while simultaneously downplaying the activities of their opponents. For example, in April 2024 in Banja Luka, the organizers of Concourse “Republika Srpska calls you” and government representatives claimed that 50,000 participants gathered at the event. However, the Archive of Public Rallies in Belgrade later stated that the real number was no more than 9,000 people.
“Numbers are always manipulated by politicians to favor their narrative,” explains Banja Luka-based political analyst Tanja Topic. “Governments often inflate turnout figures for their events to demonstrate strength, while downplaying opposition numbers to portray them as weak and unsupported. For example, during opposition protests in Banja Luka in October 2021, police reported 3,500 participants, but opposition sources claimed 10,000 people.”
The same tactic is used to discredit social movements perceived as threats. In 2018, the “Justice for David” protests took place in Banja Luka, demanding justice for the murder of 21-year-old David Dragičević. Despite its non-political nature, the government labeled the protest movement a public threat, accusing it of an attempt to destabilize Republika Srpska, with foreign support. After the largest rally on 5 October 2018, organizers claimed that 40,000 people had gathered at the protest, while the government-controlled public broadcaster RTRS reported that there were only “a few thousand” participants.
“State-controlled media serve as additional elements of political authority,” says Topic. “These media inflate the figures of pro-government activities and minimize opposition rallies to reinforce the illusion of social unity under the ruling elite. This manipulation creates a propaganda cycle, where dissent is constantly minimized and the power of the government is exaggerated.”
Ghost polls
In Montenegro, the manipulation of figures for political purposes is most often encountered with the presentation of public opinion polls on the eve of elections.
“Depending on the party that commissioned the survey, the figures vary and the percentages always favor the political party or group that sponsored the survey,” explains Biljana Matijašević, political journalist at ND Vijesti.
Darvin Muric, editor-in-chief of the fact-checking platform Raskrinkavanje.me, points out that fake public opinion polls are tools often used for political manipulation, to convince voters with messages like: "We are stronger; our opponents are completely weak."
“This type of manipulation happens quickly and inexpensively,” explains Muric. “Arbitrary figures are presented as evidence of popular support for the party or candidate; they attach the name of a fictitious research institute, and the information is then disseminated through social media and allied media outlets.”
As a typical example, Murić cites a fictitious research institute supposedly based in Belgrade, the so-called Center for Independent Scholars (CSI)This agency regularly publishes “polls” for the elections in Montenegro, despite the fact that there is no record of CSI in the business registers of Serbia or Montenegro, and there is no record of any kind of activity other than its claims of research work in the run-up to the elections.
Muric says that CSI uses specific disinformation tactics, including publishing tables of figures using the names of reputable research institutes. Almost all CSI polls predict positive results for the two largest parties, the Democratic Party of Socialists and the Democratic Front, along with their candidates. Unfortunately, some Montenegrin media outlets – such as Borba, Adria and IN4S – regularly publish results and information from this fake agency.
A series of similar polls by fake agencies were published in Podgorica before the recent local elections. One of these polls, which was published under the name of the Ipsos agency commissioned by the New Serbian Democracy (NSD) party, contained questionable data regarding the number of people surveyed and the results. Ipsos CEO Vladimir Raicevic stated that his agency had not conducted any such survey.
Another poll published on Facebook bore the name of methodology expert, Prof. Dr. Miloš Bešić. The material was presented as an “authentic poll” and was accompanied by graphs showing the percentages for each party. The problem is that Bešić told Raskrinkavanje.me that it had nothing to do with that survey.
A third poll, published by the CGinfo portal, was allegedly conducted on behalf of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). This poll for the mayoralty of Podgorica showed that the candidate leading the list of the Europe Now-Democrats Movement was in first place. DPS MP Andrija Nikolic dismissed the poll as fake.
Manipulating crowd numbers and poll results creates confusion among the public, not knowing who to trust. This undermines trust in public opinion polling, especially in polls leading up to elections.
“Many believe that these polls are commissioned by parties, with results that are adjusted to favor those who pay them,” Topic notes. “These tactics attempt to create the idea of a winning image to sway undecided voters. After the elections, all parties declare victory by selectively interpreting the results to highlight their strengths. Electoral engineering, political corruption, and clientelism are skillfully hidden within this system.”
In addition to the pre-election polls, Darvin Muric also points to manipulations with the last population census, both before and after the census. “From the very beginning, political and nationalist agendas led to the publication of incorrect information about the census results, and then the actual results were presented in a manipulated manner. We should also not forget the constant manipulation of figures regarding the victims of past wars,” Muric explains.
Figures by interest
In Kosovo, the last three years have been marked by violent protests in Serb-majority municipalities, mass resignations of Serb officials from public institutions, and boycotts of local elections in those areas. In 2023, Kosovo faced sanctions from the EU, after Albin Kurti's government was accused of straining relations with both the EU and the US.
The government justified its measures in these municipalities as an effort to protect national sovereignty. These measures included closing down parallel Serbian institutions, banning the use of the Serbian dinar, and encouraging the opening of businesses owned by ethnic Albanians in these areas.
To counter the growing criticism, in February the ruling party published a data graph on its official Facebook page, claiming that its efforts to fight crime had improved perceptions of safety among Kosovo Serbs. The data to support these claims was taken from a survey by Public Pulse UNDP, which is conducted twice a year. The survey addresses socio-economic, political, security and environmental issues. The ruling party stressed that data from the latest report, published on February 28, showed that 37.6 percent of Serbs were satisfied with security conditions, compared to 33.8 percent in April 2023, and 15.3 percent in November 2022. These data were presented as evidence of a significant improvement in the perception of security for Serbs in Kosovo.
However, fact-checking platform Hibrid.info revealed that the ruling party chose to review only the three most recent reports (November 2022, April 2023, and November 2023), ignoring data from previous years that contradicted its claims. Likewise, the data presented as “2024” was actually from November 2023, as made clear by Pulsi Publik 25.
UNDP reports show a different situation. In 2018, only 4.8 percent and 10.4 percent of Serbs felt safe. For 2019, this figure increased to 16.2 percent and 27.4 percent. In 2020, it rose further to 47 percent and 46.2 percent, while at the end of 2021 it reached 50.9 percent. However, under the current government, the level of perceived security has dropped significantly, reducing from 46.1 percent at the beginning of 2022 to 15.3 percent at the end of that year.
Fact checkers go on the attack!
Across the region, many media outlets and individuals have engaged in fact-checking efforts. In Bosnia, platforms such as A truth teller and the website Unmasking regularly expose disinformation and manipulation. However, it is clear that their reach and influence on the public is weaker than the actual sources of manipulation and disinformation.
“Politicians in Bosnia receive considerable attention from the mainstream media, which often publish their statements uncritically, without verifying their accuracy. Furthermore, some media outlets act directly in favor of particular political groups. For example, Radio Television of Republika Srpska (RTRS), which is essentially a public broadcaster, serves the interests of a political party and never publishes corrections. On the other hand, the national public broadcaster BHT "It has been relatively responsible, although this also depends on the leaders of the institution at certain periods," says Dalio Sijah, editor-in-chief of Istinomje.
In Montenegro, the approach to reporting and verifying information is quite diverse, reflecting the highly polarized media landscape in the country, says Marko Banovic, an analyst at Digital Analysis Center.
“Even the dismantling of manipulative content is often selective in the Montenegrin media,” Banović explains. “Organs affiliated with certain political parties often distribute manipulative information without critical analysis. On the other hand, even those who try to expose this disinformation often turn a blind eye when it comes to manipulation by the political forces they support. This further deepens social polarization and reduces public trust in the media.”
In Kosovo, these media outlets play an important role in analyzing government claims. Fact-checking platforms like Hibrid.info and Cryometer from Kallxo.com regularly verify statistics published by the government. The problem is that these platforms do not reach the same public reach as the government narrative. Likewise, the mainstream media also address these issues not in news editions but in television programs and special articles where government statements are refuted, especially on topics such as economic growth and employment levels. In addition, fact-checkers and investigative journalists face numerous challenges when it comes to accessing reliable data, especially on general population statistics.
In Albania, civil society organizations such as Check it out and BIRN Albania work diligently to debunk false information. However, the fact-checking process takes time, and corrections are often delayed due to the slow release of public information. Journalists sometimes have to wait weeks for data that should be available to the public.
The lack of support from mainstream media exacerbates the problem. Civil society organizations publish exposes of false information but often this is not picked up by mainstream media, even by those media outlets that initially spread the false information. Mainstream media outlets, which are largely controlled by politically connected businessmen, often act as “mouthpieces” for political parties — a concern highlighted by the European Commission’s progress reports. As a result, these media outlets rarely correct false information, effectively becoming sources of disinformation themselves. This situation makes it increasingly difficult for civil society organizations to disseminate accurate information to the public.
In Serbia, media such as Fake News Finder, Truth meter and Screaming, together with investigative journalism centers such as CINS and KRIK, tirelessly expose disinformation spread by the government and other forces.
Although it is often said that the reach and influence of fact-checking organizations in the Western Balkans is limited, it is difficult to imagine what the media landscape would look like without them. The fog of disinformation and propaganda in our societies would undoubtedly be much thicker. It is also worth noting that the influence of fact-checking media has been growing steadily over the past decade. Their audience often increases – sometimes dramatically – during crisis situations or when there is confusion and uncertainty about the facts related to issues of particular public importance. This growth in audience underlines the need and growing importance of these media in society.
The article was originally published in seenpm.org
Lexo here the first part