Wrote: Festim Rizanaj
Six new polls have been published on Facebook claiming to present measurements for the mayoral races of Prizren, Suhareka, Obiliq and Lipjan.
These polls were published by various websites from October 8 to October 11, just one day before the local elections in Kosovo.
Obilic
The “ABC News Kosova” Facebook page on October 8 published three Photography through which it claimed that it was a survey in the race for mayor of Obiliq. In the description of the publication it was said that the results were published by the "Institute for Social and Political Research (IHSP)". It was emphasized that the measurement was carried out with 1000 respondents in the period from 1 to 5 October.
"According to the collected data, the race for Mayor of Obiliq is led by the candidate of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), Xhafer Gashi, with 51.12% of the support of the respondents. Behind him is the candidate of the Vetëvendosje Movement (VV), Halil Thaçi, with 37.85%, while the rest is divided among the other candidates," the description of the publication on Facebook states.
Meanwhile, in the design that is claimed to represent the measurements, three other divisions appear: Nystret Kelmendi (PDK) who figures with 3.2%, Shefki Salihu (NISMA) with 1.5% and Others with 6.2%.
Hibrid.info searched Google with the words "Poll for mayor of Obiliq”. No credible publication has been found that could be linked to such a survey in the last month. Also, no information was found for the “Institute for Social and Political Research (IHSP)”. In addition to the fact that there was no information on Google or social networks, there were no businesses registered with this name in Kosovo Business Registration Agency nor non-governmental organization in Electronic System of Non-Governmental Organizations.
The fact that the content is not credible is also made worse by the fact that only two remaining entities (the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo – AAK and the Serbian List) can be included in the “others” subcategory with 6.2%. If this measurement were accurate, it would mean that at least one of these two entities would have a higher percentage than the Initiative and as such in a credible poll would have to be presented as separate and not in the “others” subcategory.
Suhareka
On October 9th, the page "Theranda My City" published a photo claiming to be a poll for the elections for the mayor of Suhareka. It claimed that the poll was based on interviewing 2124 citizens in the city and villages of this municipality. According to the result shown in the photo, Bali Muharremaj of AAK will win 53.2 percent and will secure the triumph without a runoff. Second in the ranking of this claim is Ardian Shala of LDK with 24.9%, third Hamdi Bytyçi of VV with 12% and fourth Dardan Berisha of PDK with 9.9%.
Meanwhile, on October 10, the page "Suhareka News" published a photo claiming to be the latest poll for these elections regarding the race for mayor of Suhareka. This page wrote in the table provided that the poll was conducted by the "Institute for Democracy and Education (IDE)". There too, the ranking was the same, but with an increase in the percentage of the first two candidates and a decrease in the last two. As in the first case discussed in this article, there was no public data for the "Institute for Democracy and Education (IDE)" on Google, Facebook or even the official website for registering businesses or non-governmental organizations.
For both, hibrid.info has verified on Google with the words "Poll for mayor of Suhareka". No credible source has been found that has published a poll for the elections in this municipality.
Lipljan
There was also a claim for the publication of a poll for the mayoral elections in the municipality of Lipjan. Page “Lipjan360" published a photo on October 10th through which it claims that according to a recent poll, the race for mayor of Lipjan is led by Ilir Qeriqi, candidate of VV. According to the table, Imri Ahmeti of LDK is second with 32.4%, while Shukri Buja of PDK is third with 29.5%.
This publication lacked information about who conducted the survey, when the measurements were taken, or other data to make the survey more credible. Also, a Google search with “Lipjan mayor poll"It does not appear that any survey has been conducted that shows such data."
Prizren
"October's poll and the last one before tomorrow's elections! It seems the runoff will be between Shaqir Totaj and Driton Selmanaj" is the claim published on October 11 by the page "Shadërvanit" for mayor of Prizren. The table shows Shaqir Totaj of PDK as the first candidate with 31%, while Driton Selmanaj of LDK as the second with 27.8%. Artan Abrashi of VV came in third with 18.2%.
And a day earlier (October 10), the page "Prizren News"published a graph with completely different data, as it claimed, based on measurements by the "Institute for Democracy and Education (IDE)" for which, after verification by hibrid.info, it turned out that there was no public data in Google, Facebook or even the official website for business registration or non-governmental organizations. The design and colors look similar to those in the case of “Suhareka News”. In this claim, PDK’s Shaqir Totaj leads with over 50 percent, followed by VV’s Artan Abrashi with around 30 percent. The list includes only four candidates who claim 100 percent, and although they are in the race eight candidates for president.
Neither of these two publications have shown the data that should have been shown to make the survey credible. Even hibrid.info also covered another publication by the "Shadervani" website. of September 30, through which it was also claimed to be a poll for mayor of this municipality. After verification, the claim turned out to be false.
For both, hibrid.info has verified on Google with the words "Probe for kryetar të Prizrenit". No credible source has been found that has published a poll for the elections in this municipality.
What are surveys?
A survey is preliminary research to identify a situation, opinions or attitudes about something specific. In this statistical method Results are drawn based on the study of a portion of the population, called a sample.
Based on the institute's article Pew Research (research institute for fact-based surveys and studies), it is clarified what information should be requested about how a survey was conducted.
Who conducted the survey and who sponsored it?
Who was interviewed?
How was the survey conducted?
How were people selected for the survey?
When was the survey conducted?
How many people were interviewed?
Was the survey weighted? If so, how?
Do the survey questions seem neutral and fair?
The phenomenon of publishing fake polls continues to appear on social media, where content of this type is published almost every day.
All of these claims, collectively, have received hundreds of reactions on social media.
Since September 13, when the election campaign began, including 6 in this article, hibrid.info has covered 22 fake polls on mayoral candidates, published by social media accounts and pages (see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here)
Analyze:
Six publications, from October 8 to October 11, from different websites claim to present polls for the mayoral race in the local elections in Prizren, Suhareka, Obiliq and Lipjan.
After verification by hibrid.info, it turns out that they are not based on credible sources. Some of them have even mentioned that they were allegedly carried out by various organizations or institutes that, after research, turn out to be not officially registered as businesses or non-governmental organizations in Kosovo.
Based on its work methodology, hibrid.info assesses this content as "Fake News".
Reasoning:
The “Fake News” rating is given to informational content that is entirely fabricated or that contains factually incorrect claims or information. Content that is rated as fake news can be defined as having been created and distributed with the intent to misinform the public, i.e., to present a claim that is completely false as fact.