Wrote: Etrit Rexhepi
Three posts were found published claiming to present survey results for the municipalities of Pristina and Prizren, showing support for mayoral candidates in the second round of local elections.
Two pieces of content focus on the possible results for Pristina, while one post presented the results for Prizren.
What's wrong with this content?
The posts contain graphical representations and written results, but do not provide any information on the essential components for ensuring the reliability of the surveys.
Pristina:
The website "Dardania News" published on Sunday, November 9, a Photography where portraits of the candidates for mayor of Pristina, Përparim Rama and Hajrulla Çeku, who are competing in the second round of the elections, are seen.
The photograph is accompanied by the ovary of an article published on November 6, with the same title and caption: “Breaking news: Surprising results in the latest poll for Pristina".
The text explains that it is an online survey, conducted from October 20 to November 1, with the methodology "one IP – one vote". The results show that the LDK candidate, Përparim Rama, leads with 57.33% of the votes, while Hajrulla Çeku has 42.67%.
According to these results, Rama would win if the elections were held on the day the article was published. However, the post contains a link to online voting: https://yt.vu/Xqewz, which indicates that voting is still open.
The post lacks information on the full methodology, sample selection, and the institution that conducted the survey. Methodology “one IP – one vote" is not a scientific standard and does not guarantee accurate representation of the population.
Another one RELEASE on Saturday (November 8) from the "Gazeta Shtatë" page, in the caption it only presented the possible results of the two candidates in Pristina "Rama's Progress 61.3% – Hajrullah Çeku 38.7%", according to a purported survey.
This content does not contain sufficient information to make the survey credible, such as the methodology used, the sample selected, the period of implementation, and the institution that conducted the measurements.
Prizren:
A RELEASE Another Saturday (November 8) poll from the website “Prizren News” has presented in graphic form the possible results of the two candidates running for mayor in Prizren. The alleged poll shows Shaqir Totaj as the winner against Artan Abrashi.
This content also lacks sufficient information to make the survey credible, such as the methodology used, the selected sample, the period of implementation, and the institution that conducted the measurements.
What are surveys?
A survey is preliminary research to identify a situation, opinions or attitudes about something specific. In this statistical method Results are drawn based on the study of a portion of the population, called a sample.
Based on the institute's article Pew Research (research institute for fact-based surveys and studies), it is clarified what information should be requested about how a survey was conducted.
- Who conducted the survey and who sponsored it?
- Who was interviewed?
- How was the survey conducted?
- How were people selected for the survey?
- When was the survey conducted?
- How many people were interviewed?
- Was the survey weighted? If so, how?
- Do the survey questions seem neutral and fair?
From September 13 to October 12, the day of local elections in Kosovo, 28 false claims were identified that presented public opinion measurements in the form of surveys or exit polls. Of these, 26 were presented as surveys, while two were published on election day with the claim that they were exit polls (see here).
Apart from the exit polls published on the day of the first round elections, hibrid.info has not found any reliable public opinion polls that would show support for mayoral candidates in Kosovo during and after the period mentioned above (see here).
Analyze:
Three posts were identified that claim to present poll results for the municipalities of Pristina and Prizren, for the second round of local elections.
These contents cannot be considered reliable.
The publications lack essential information (methodology, sample, period, measurement institution), which makes these "polls" unsuitable for serious measurements of public opinion.
Based on its working methodology, hibrid.info categorizes this content as "Fake News".
rationale
The “Fake News” rating is given to informational content that is entirely fabricated or that contains factually incorrect claims or information. Content that is rated as fake news can be defined as having been created and distributed with the intent to misinform the public, i.e., to present a claim that is completely false as fact.